Season’s Greetings from Fine & Country Rugby. I’m Sam Funnell, back again with my latest market update for 2019.
As we reach the end of a what has been a turbulent year in the political climate, it has been a remarkably busy one in the local property market. We have had a record year in terms of house sales reflected in a dominant market share in the upper quartile of the marketplace. In fact in the core postcode sectors that we operate in we have secured 35.4% market share of all homes that have exchanged contracts from £600,000 and above in 2019, so more that 1 in 3, which is a fantastic result.
So what of the wider market and the forecasts for the 2020’s? No matter your political persuasion, there has been widespread relief that Brexit is finally upon us after the turmoil of the last 3 years. This has been reflected in the increase in listings that will hit the local market in the New Year, but with increased choice comes the likelihood of minimal growth. According to Rightmove house prices dropped by 0.9% in November and new stock fell by a huge 8%, no doubt encouraged by the political uncertainty of the time. They predict a rise in house prices of 2% in 2020.
The longer term outlook for house prices has weakened however. Oxford Economics has downgraded its long-term GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% per year between 2020 and 2030. This shift is based on the expectation of a looser relationship with the EU and lower levels of trade, along with an ageing and less productive population. This lower GDP forecast will restrict household income growth, which will in turn limit long term house price growth.
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It’s interesting that in the next 10 years it will be the ‘Baby Boomer’ generation that will have a huge impact on the property market. It’s predicted as that large generation hits 70, that they will begin ‘devest’ and sell their biggest assets, so if that’s the case there will be no shortage of stock in the next 10 years and some of that wealth should return to the bottom of the market to enable the next generation of first time buyers the opportunity to get on the ladder. This should provide both buyers and sellers with increased confidence that the market will remain stable, with growth, albeit minimal compared to the previous 20 years.
These are indeed exciting times and I would very much like to wish you and your families a wonderful Christmas and a prosperous New Year as we head into the new decade!
If you would like any property related advice then do not hesitate to contact me on the details that are about to follow.
See you next year!
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